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Monday, January 3, 2022

A New Year prediction


      It is hard to be accurate on predictions 11 months in advance with our volatile political environment.  Right now the Democrats are feeling that the only time they have to pass any meaningful legislation is before this year's election.  While the gerrymandering of election districts does seem to set the Republicans up to retake the House, the Senate may be another matter.  You can't redistrict Senate elections and something might happen in June that could give the Democrats a chance to not only hold the Senate but expand their numbers in the Senate.  It is possible that the Supreme Court in June could rule that states are allowed to set the rules on abortion. This ruling might cause suburban women to vote Democratic in November's election.  Nothing motivates people to vote than an aggrieved population. This trend would even be accelerated if Republicans nominate far-right candidates in their primaries.  It is possible that next January the Senate could have 52 or 53 Democrats instead of the present 50. This would mean at Joe Manchin would not have the power that he now possesses.  It would still be hard to pass progressive legislation with the Republicans in control of the House but nominations that only have to go through the Senate would have an easier time and maybe the filibuster rule could finally be changed.

    Republicans used a Supreme Court vacancy in 2016 to narrowly elect a Republican president and maybe a Supreme Court ruling could do the opposite in 2022.  Time will tell.

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