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Friday, March 25, 2022

US population growth slowest in many years

    The US Census is starting to release some information from the 2020 Census.  This may be the last census that is conducted in the traditional way we are used to.  The census in the future might rely on other online data sources that may be more exhaustive than the model used by the census. 

    The most significant finding is that the population has been growing so slowly.  Our growth rate is the lowest since the middle of the Great Depression year of 1937.  Low birth rates, low immigration rate, and a higher death rate because of COVID are the causes.  The movement from the Northeast and Upper Midwest to the Southeast and Southwest continues.  Greater mobility seems to cause people to move away from colder climates to warmer climates.  Florida, Texas, and Arizona saw the greatest net increase mostly from people moving there from other states.   This migration will be interesting to watch in how that plays out politically.  Florida seems to have become more conservative and Texas and Arizona less conservative.  Some of the changes in Florida may be related to the Cuban American population becoming more conservative.  One state that has had a significant increase in population is Idaho.  From news reports I have seen this is a result of conservatives and younger tech workers from California moving there.  Having been to Idaho last year there seemed to be a lot of housing being built near the cities there.

    In looking at income and levels of poverty it is not surprising that states with low educational levels had the highest rates of poverty and high tech states the highest income levels.  The disparity among states on income is growing.  The rich states (i.e.high educational levels) are getting richer and the poor states (i.e. low educational levels) are getting poorer in our increasingly digital world.  Much of the red state/blue state political reality can be explained because of this reality.  The many Red States are feeling left behind in our digital world with blue color workers losing high wage union jobs for low wage work without benefits at companies like Walmart and Amazon.

    The 2020 census seems to be showing that the low birth rate that has been occurring over the past 30-40 years will probably continue and our future growth will have to depend on increased immigration.  Without the increase in immigration, our Country will be looking at a net population decrease in the future.  Some countries like Japan, Italy, and Poland have already reached that point.  Look for Russia to follow those countries in the near future.

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